As tensions escalate between Iran and Israel, Iran faces a critical internal challenge. Reports suggest that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is gravely unwell, and his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been chosen as his successor. This decision could have far-reaching implications for Iran’s domestic policies and regional dynamics.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s Secret Selection as Supreme Leader
Persian-language media outlet Iran International reported that Mojtaba Khamenei was secretly selected to succeed Ayatollah Ali . According to the outlet, which is connected to Iranian opposition groups, this decision was finalized during a confidential meeting of Iran’s Assembly of Experts on September 26. The 60-member body, tasked with selecting the Supreme Leader, allegedly faced significant pressure and threats to ensure Mojtaba’s appointment.
The Assembly’s decision follows a report by The New York Times detailing an internal struggle to determine Ayatollah Ali Khamenei‘s successor. Now 85, Ali Khamenei has been visibly unwell, as seen during his October 4 public appearance, where he led prayers for Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, killed in an Israeli strike.
Challenges in Iran’s Leadership Transition
Unlike the seamless succession after Khomeini’s death in 1989, Mojtaba’s path to leadership is fraught with challenges. Analysts highlight the pivotal role of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in uniting Iran’s political factions during Khamenei’s rise, a unifying figure that is absent today.
Additionally, many of Khamenei’s close allies are unpopular with the Iranian public. The sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi, a prominent contender, in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024, further complicates the succession process. Social unrest, including protests following Mahsa Amini’s death in custody, adds another layer of unpredictability to the leadership transition.
Who Is Mojtaba Khamenei?
Born in 1969 in Mashhad, Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He studied theology in Qom, Iran’s largest Islamic seminary, where he now teaches. He is married to Zahra Haddad-Adel and has three children.
Mojtaba played a controversial role in Iran’s 2005 and 2009 elections, supporting then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and allegedly suppressing protests after the disputed 2009 election. However, his relationship with Ahmadinejad later deteriorated due to allegations of corruption.
Implications for Iran and the Region
Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader could transform Iran’s political landscape. With ongoing protests and heightened tensions in West Asia, this leadership transition might introduce new challenges to an already volatile region.
